Legislature(2011 - 2012)SENATE FINANCE 532

03/22/2012 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE


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09:11:57 AM Start
09:13:40 AM SB192
10:52:42 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+= SB 192 OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION TAX RATES TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
+ Presentation by PFC Energy TELECONFERENCED
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
SENATE BILL NO. 192                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     "An Act relating to the oil and gas production tax;                                                                        
     and providing for an effective date."                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:13:40 AM                                                                                                                    
Co-Chair  Stedman announced  that PFC  Energy was  contracted                                                                   
by the Legislative  Budget and Audit Committee  and worked on                                                                   
behalf of the legislature.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
JANAK  MAYER,   MANAGER,  UPSTREAM   AND  GAS,  PFC   ENERGY,                                                                   
presented  a  PowerPoint  Presentation,  "Discussion  Slides:                                                                   
Alaska Senate  Finance Committee"  (March 22, 2012)  (copy on                                                                   
file).                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman   requested  a   definition  of   the  word                                                                   
"upstream"  and  a brief  explanation  of what  services  PFC                                                                   
Energy provided.   Mr. Mayer replied that in the  oil and gas                                                                   
industry  "upstream" referred  to all  activities leading  to                                                                   
the production of  oil or gas at the well head.  The upstream                                                                   
sector  included exploration,  project  development, and  gas                                                                   
or oil production.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:16:21 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  explained  that PFC  Energy was  a global oil  and                                                                   
gas consultancy.  He elaborated that the business  focused on                                                                   
all  of  the  "above  ground"  aspects of  the  oil  and  gas                                                                   
industry  and the  risks associated  with  producing oil  and                                                                   
gas  for government  and industry.  The  firm operated  under                                                                   
the premise  that governments set  the terms for oil  and gas                                                                   
development  and   industry  needed  to  understand   how  to                                                                   
operate under  the conditions. The company  analyzed markets;                                                                   
commercial,  economic, and  political risks;  and how  fiscal                                                                   
policies  impact project  development. He  furthered that  an                                                                   
integral   aspect  of   PFC   Energy's   work  examined   the                                                                   
relationships   between   governments,    international   oil                                                                   
companies, and nationalized oil companies.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  announced   that  the  presentation  would                                                                   
begin with  a historical data  review of the dollar  value of                                                                   
Alaska's  oil basins adjusted  for inflation.  He noted  that                                                                   
PFC  examined   comparisons  of  analyses  made   under  ACES                                                                   
(Alaska's  Clear and  Equitable Share)  and re-evaluated  and                                                                   
updated  the  data  according  to  actual  costs  and  market                                                                   
prices  of  oil.  The presentation  would  conclude  with  an                                                                   
analysis of SB 192.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:21:41 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer  identified   Slide  4,  "ANS  West   Coast  Crude                                                                   
Historical Average  Price (Real vs. Nominal),"  that depicted                                                                   
a graph  of Alaska crude oil  daily production &  ANS (Alaska                                                                   
North  Slope)  annual  average  price (real  &  nominal).  He                                                                   
relayed  that a blue  dotted line  represented Alaskan  daily                                                                   
production  by thousands  of  barrels  per day  beginning  in                                                                   
1978  until 2011.  The red  line depicted  ANS (Alaska  North                                                                   
Slope)  crude  oil  price  (dollars  per  barrel  (bbl.))  in                                                                   
nominal  terms and  the  yellow line  depicted  the price  in                                                                   
real terms.  He pointed  out that the  ANS price  of $35/bbl.                                                                   
in 1981 equated to $75/bbl. in 2010.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer   discussed  Slide   5,  "ANS  West   Coast  Crude                                                                   
Historical  Average  Price  (Real vs.  Nominal)."  The  graph                                                                   
portrayed Alaska  crude oil daily  production and  the annual                                                                   
value  of ANS  Production  (real and  nominal)  from 1978  to                                                                   
2011. The  ANS crude oil  price was multiplied  by production                                                                   
to determine the actual total  value over time. He underlined                                                                   
that in the  early years the total values of  production were                                                                   
high  until 1988  when  the production  peaked  and began  to                                                                   
steadily decline  along with the  actual values. In  2000 the                                                                   
total value  began to rise  from rising  oil prices to  a new                                                                   
high  period despite  continued  decline  in production.  The                                                                   
early  years  marked  high  value   and  high  production  in                                                                   
contrast  to  the  current  climate of  high  value  and  low                                                                   
production.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:25:29 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer  highlighted  Slide   6,  "ANS  West  Coast  Crude                                                                   
Historical  Average  Price  (Real vs.  Nominal)."  The  slide                                                                   
contained  a graph  that illustrated  the split  of the  real                                                                   
value  (gross value)  of production  in  millions of  dollars                                                                   
between the government (state  and federal) and the producers                                                                   
and the percentage  of gross value to producers  between 1978                                                                   
and 2011. He delineated that the  percentage to producers was                                                                   
not  the   same  as  the   percentage  of  government   take.                                                                   
Government  take represented  divisible  income; the  revenue                                                                   
after costs.  The percentage  to producers represented  gross                                                                   
revenue. The  percent of gross  value to producers was  65 to                                                                   
80 percent in the mid-eighties  and began to fall in 2006 and                                                                   
sharply decline  to under 50  percent in 2008.  He attributed                                                                   
the decline  to the  enactment of  PPT (Petroleum  Production                                                                   
Tax) in 2006 and  ACES in 2008. He remarked that  in 2008 the                                                                   
price  of oil  was consistently  high  which triggered  "high                                                                   
levels" of progressivity in ACES.  The result shifted revenue                                                                   
away from the producers to government.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:28:16 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer  highlighted  Slide   7,  "ANS  West  Coast  Crude                                                                   
Historical  Average  Price  (Real  vs  Nominal)."  The  slide                                                                   
graphed  the  composition  and  amount  of  the  state's  oil                                                                   
revenues:  NPR-A  (National  Petroleum   Reserve)  Royalties,                                                                   
Rents,  Bonuses, CBRF  (Constitutional  Budget Reserve  Fund)                                                                   
Settlements,  Royalty  to  Public School  Trust,  Royalty  to                                                                   
Permanent Fund,  Conservation Tax, Special  Settlements (non-                                                                   
CBRF), Conservation  Surcharge (Hazardous Release),  Bonuses,                                                                   
Rents  and  Interest,  Property Tax,  Corporate  Income  Tax,                                                                   
Royalties,  and  Production Tax,  from  1978  until 2011.  He                                                                   
noted that  the production  tax spiked  dramatically  in 2008                                                                   
under  ACES  from  increased  levels  of  progressivity  that                                                                   
resulted in amplified state revenues.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer   discussed  Slide   8,  "ANS  West   Coast  Crude                                                                   
Historical Average  Price (Real vs. Nominal)."  The bar graph                                                                   
depicted the  Alaska crude oil  daily production and  the ANS                                                                   
annual  average price  from  2006 to  2010.  The totals  were                                                                   
quantified by  qualified costs,  net value to  producers, and                                                                   
the total government  tax royalty. He detailed  that in 2006,                                                                   
costs to  producers were  relatively low  in relation  to its                                                                   
net value. The producer's net  value was substantially higher                                                                   
than total  government royalty.  In 2008, costs  to producers                                                                   
were a higher  percentage of their net value,  which declined                                                                   
while government royalties spiked  much higher than producers                                                                   
net value. The trend of higher  costs, declining net value to                                                                   
producers  and  higher  government  take began  in  2007  and                                                                   
continued  into 2010 caused  by the  combination of  high oil                                                                   
prices triggering higher levels of progressivity.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman referred  to Slide  5, and determined  that                                                                   
the   high  annual   real  value   of   ANS  production   was                                                                   
approximately  $40 billion  (1980)  compared  to roughly  $20                                                                   
billion today. Mr. Mayer confirmed.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  added  that  the  annual  real  value  was                                                                   
approximately $22  billion in  1990. Mr. Mayer  confirmed and                                                                   
added that coincided  with the period of ANS  peak production                                                                   
of  two million  barrels per  day. He  remarked that  today's                                                                   
real value  was the  same with  declining production,  due to                                                                   
increased government take.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  felt  that  any discussion  on  oil  taxes                                                                   
should include the value and prospectively  of the Alaska oil                                                                   
basin.                                                                                                                          
9:33:06 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas cited  Slide 8. He asked for  clarification of                                                                   
qualified costs. Mr. Mayer replied  that qualified costs were                                                                   
the  costs  (defined  by the  Department  of  Revenue  (DOR))                                                                   
claimed by the producers.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas  queried how the  deductions and  credits were                                                                   
represented  on  the  graph. Mr.  Mayer  responded  that  the                                                                   
deductions and credits were reflected  in the qualified costs                                                                   
(depicted  as  a  green  portion  of  the  bar)  and  reduced                                                                   
government royalty (depicted as a red portion of the bar).                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Thomas wondered  who shared in  the costs.  Co-Chair                                                                   
Stedman  replied  that the  green  portion was  the  industry                                                                   
cost, and  the government royalty  was identified in  red. He                                                                   
clarified  that   the  impact  of  the  20   percent  capital                                                                   
expenditure  (capex)  and  immediate   write-off  of  capital                                                                   
expenditure shrank the red bar. Mr. Mayer confirmed.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  wondered if the qualified  costs offset the                                                                   
producer's net  value (depicted as  an orange portion  of the                                                                   
bar) in  the analysis.  He recalled  previous testimony  that                                                                   
industry did not  count the net impact of the  credits or the                                                                   
immediate write-off of capital.  Mr. Mayer responded that the                                                                   
qualified cost  on the green  bar reflected the  actual costs                                                                   
without credits  or write-offs. He stressed that  the credits                                                                   
and  write-offs  were  reflected  in the  net  value  to  the                                                                   
producer (yellow  portion of bar) and reduced  the government                                                                   
royalty depicted in red.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer  communicated that  the  next  set of  Slides  re-                                                                   
examined previous  analyses of ACES. He pointed  to Slide 10,                                                                   
"  "ACES  Preserves Investment  Climate":  What  has  changed                                                                   
since  2007?"  The  Slide  depicted   the  cover  page  of  a                                                                   
presentation dated  October 21, 2007 titled,  "ACES Preserves                                                                   
Investment  Climate."  Mr. Mayer  related  that  in order  to                                                                   
determine   whether  ACES   had  preserved   or  enabled   an                                                                   
investment  climate,  it  was  important  to  re-examine  the                                                                   
analysis  at   the  inception   of  ACES  and   evaluate  the                                                                   
conclusions in retrospect.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:38:35 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer  turned  to Slide  11,  "Revisiting  the  Previous                                                                   
Modeling Work,"  which contained three condensed  slides that                                                                   
depicted  data  from  the  2007  presentation.  The  analysis                                                                   
concluded  that ACES  preserved  an investment  climate.  The                                                                   
conclusion was  discerned from an analysis of  7 hypothetical                                                                   
oil  field  scenarios.  A production  profile  that  built-in                                                                   
capital and  operating costs predicated  on a  certain dollar                                                                   
per barrel was the basis for the analyses.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  chose a scenario depicted  in the slide  as "Field                                                                   
B." He  referred to the  table of data  at the bottom  of the                                                                   
slide, and noted the highlighted  second row. The net present                                                                   
value was calculated  for the various scenarios  and all were                                                                   
positive   values  with   the  exception   of  a  heavy   oil                                                                   
development scenario.  He interpreted the assumptions  of the                                                                   
analyses. The  analyses did not  reflect ACES as  the program                                                                   
functions   currently  but   as  it   was  proposed   to  the                                                                   
legislature  at  the  time.    He  revealed  the  conflicting                                                                   
assumptions as noted in Slide 12:                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Key Assumptions to Consider                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
          •Regime modeled is ACES as proposed, not as                                                                           
          enacted:                                                                                                              
               - 0.02% progressivity above the $30 level,                                                                       
               not 0.04%                                                                                                        
               -50% maximum production tax rate, not 75%                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
          •Cost assumptions are much lower than recent                                                                          
          experience suggests:                                                                                                  
               -$10/bbl. capex and $9/bbl. opex, vs.                                                                            
               -$17/bbl. capex and opex                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
          •Analysis performed from $20 to $100 crude oil                                                                        
          price, with focus on $40 "stress-test" price, and                                                                     
          $60 "base case"                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
          •Assumed production profile is one that will                                                                          
          maximize economic returns for a given field size                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
               -High peak production rate with high decline                                                                     
               rate means most production value occurs                                                                          
               within 10 years                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Mayer   noted   that  scenario   "B"   calculated   the                                                                   
progressivity rate of .02 percent.  The legislature enacted a                                                                   
rate  of  .04  percent.  In  addition,   the  legislation  as                                                                   
proposed  contained  a  maximum   progressivity  rate  of  50                                                                   
percent.  The  legislature  enacted   a  maximum  75  percent                                                                   
progressivity  rate. He  added  that the  hypothetical  field                                                                   
analyses    included   estimated    reserves.   Scenario    B                                                                   
characterized  a 60 million  barrel (MMB)  reserve. The  high                                                                   
peak production  profile was not  consistent with  the actual                                                                   
historical  production   profile  that  peaked   at  a  lower                                                                   
production  rate and  declined at  a much  slower and  steady                                                                   
rate.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:45:13 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer discussed  Slide 13, "Benchmarking  Government Take                                                                   
-  at $60/bbl."  The  Slide depicted  a  chart that  compared                                                                   
international  median  government take  by  tax systems.  The                                                                   
chart  reported  Norway  at 81  percent,  above  Alaska's  70                                                                   
percent.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Mayer   turned   to   Slides   14   and   15,   "Regime                                                                   
Competitiveness:   Average  Government   Take."  The   slides                                                                   
illustrated  a graph  of average  government  take of  global                                                                   
fiscal  regimes at  $100/bbl. and  $140/bbl., represented  by                                                                   
country.  He reported  that  at  $100/bbl. Alaska  was  above                                                                   
Norway at the high  end of the median in new  development and                                                                   
close to Norway  in existing production. At  $140/bbl. the US                                                                   
was above Norway and at the high  end of most regimes in both                                                                   
new and existing  production. He attributed both  outcomes to                                                                   
the high oil price coupled with progressivity in ACES.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer cited Slide 16, "ANS  West Coast Crude Spot Price -                                                                   
Last  30  Days."  The  graph  peaked  at  $128/bbl.  in  late                                                                   
February and ended  at $122/bbl. March 22, 2012.  He observed                                                                   
that a high oil price environment currently existed.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  looked at Slide 17,  "Field B in Our  Model, Under                                                                   
ACES as Proposed." The slide depicted  four graphs and charts                                                                   
of  cash flow  analysis  and  the  level and  composition  of                                                                   
government  take  of  the  "B"  scenario  from  PFC  Energy's                                                                   
current  model.  He  relayed that  the  results  were  fairly                                                                   
similar using the  same assumptions that were  used when ACES                                                                   
was proposed at $40/bbl., $60/bbl. and $100/bbl.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:50:16 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer  offered  Slide  18,  "Field  B",  Under  ACES  as                                                                   
Enacted." The graphs and charts  reflected the same "Field B"                                                                   
scenario under  ACES as  it was  enacted by the  legislature.                                                                   
The analysis  was similar  at the  $40/bbl. level;  below the                                                                   
price where  progressivity  was applicable.  At the level  of                                                                   
$100/bbl. the net  present value of a project  that was worth                                                                   
$400  million  was  25  percent less  with  ACES  as  enacted                                                                   
because  of  the  higher  cap  on  progressivity.  The  total                                                                   
government take rose  from 71 percent under  ACES as proposed                                                                   
to 77  percent under  ACES as  enacted. The total  government                                                                   
take was  84 percent  under ACES  as enacted  and 75  percent                                                                   
under ACES as proposed at over $200/bbl. price of oil.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer looked  at Slide  19,  "'Field B',  Under ACES  as                                                                   
Enacted,  with  $17/bbl.  Costs."  The  graphs  depicted  the                                                                   
"Field B" scenario that reflected  the costs assumptions used                                                                   
by  PFC  Energy's  model and  reflected  the  actual  current                                                                   
costs.  The  net  present  value (NPV)  was  negative  for  a                                                                   
producer at the $40/bbl. and $60/bbl.  but gained substantial                                                                   
positive value at $100/bbl. The  level of government take was                                                                   
similar  to  the  previous  scenarios.   The  value  for  the                                                                   
producer was marginal.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer discussed  Slide  20, "'Field  B',  Under ACES  as                                                                   
Enacted,   with  $17/bbl.   Costs   and  Flatter   Production                                                                   
Profile."  The Slide depicted  the "Field  B" scenario  under                                                                   
ACES as enacted with more realistic  costs and a historically                                                                   
accurate  production  profile  in  contrast to  the  ACES  as                                                                   
proposed model  where production swiftly peaked  and declined                                                                   
rapidly. At the  $40/bbl. and $60/bbl. the net  present value                                                                   
to the  producer was negative  and only slightly  positive at                                                                   
the $100/bbl.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Egan  wondered  whether  the  producer  or  geologic                                                                   
factors determined the production  profile. Mr. Mayer replied                                                                   
that  geologic   and  technical  limitations   determine  the                                                                   
production profile.  The producer would prefer  to produce an                                                                   
oil field as quickly as possible  to maximize its net present                                                                   
value (NPV). He  furthered that PFC's production  profile was                                                                   
modeled after actual production profiles.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:55:36 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  wondered if there was any  link between the                                                                   
government  take and  the  net present  value.  He cited  the                                                                   
chart  on slide  20, which  indicated  that at  approximately                                                                   
$80/bbl. the government  take was 75 percent and  the NPV was                                                                   
zero.  He remarked  that  in previous  HB  192 testimony  the                                                                   
state was  recommended to target  75 percent government  take                                                                   
on  current production  and less  than  that for  incremental                                                                   
production. Mr.  Mayer replied that it was  coincidental that                                                                   
the government  take was 75  percent at $80/bbl.  The various                                                                   
outcomes   were  a  result   of  a   coincidence  of   forces                                                                   
interacting rather  than specific design. He  elaborated that                                                                   
there was  an interaction  of forces  that moved in  opposite                                                                   
directions.  He pointed  out that  government  take was  very                                                                   
high when oil prices were low.  He opined that was due to the                                                                   
"regressive  nature  of the  royalty."  He cited  the  bottom                                                                   
graph  on Slide  20, which  illustrated that  at $40/bbl.  it                                                                   
would take more  than double the divisible income  to pay the                                                                   
royalty, even  after the strongly negative production  tax of                                                                   
more than 200 percent of the total.  He believed that the tax                                                                   
system  should  better  incentivize  economically  challenged                                                                   
projects.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:58:28 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  surmised that the state experienced  a much                                                                   
different outcome  with the enacted ACES system  than ACES as                                                                   
proposed  after   cost  and  price  adjustments.   Mr.  Mayer                                                                   
confirmed.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  addressed Slide 22,  "CSSB 192 Using  ACES Minimum                                                                   
PTV (Existing  Producer)" and Slide  23," CSSB 192  Using 10%                                                                   
of  Revenues   for  Minimum  PTV(Existing   Producer),"  that                                                                   
examined  the  impact of  the  revised production  tax  floor                                                                   
proposed  in SB  192.  The Slides  contained  bar graphs  and                                                                   
charts that depicted what government  take and economic value                                                                   
was for an  existing producer at 200,000/bbl.  per day. Slide                                                                   
22  presented  the scenario  under  ACES. He  explained  that                                                                   
slide 23 examined the production  tax value (PTV) established                                                                   
in SB 192, set at 10 percent of  gross revenue as the minimum                                                                   
level  of   total  production   tax  value.     The  previous                                                                   
production tax  minimum was set  at $20. He showed  that with                                                                   
the minimum  proposed in SB  192 at $40/bbl.,  the government                                                                   
take  increased to  74  percent. The  result  under the  ACES                                                                   
minimum  was 72  percent. He  opined that  the fixed  percent                                                                   
royalty system was regressive  and was challenging at low oil                                                                   
prices.  He believed  that the  proposed minimum  exacerbated                                                                   
the high government  take at low oil prices,  similar to ACES                                                                   
without  the  floor,  due  to the  fixed  royalty  rates.  He                                                                   
considered the impact on marginal  projects at low oil prices                                                                   
problematic.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:03:40 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer   discussed  methods  of  incentivizing   new  oil                                                                   
production. He turned to Slide 25:                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     ACES - A Harvest Area Regime, Not a Growth Regime                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     ACES appears to work well as a "harvest" regime                                                                            
          -Existing   mature    fields   remain   profitable,                                                                   
          including  capital  work  required to  achieve  ~6%                                                                   
          decline   (renewal    capex)   [capex   -   capital                                                                   
          expenditure]                                                                                                          
          -Maximum   'rent'   extracted  from   a   declining                                                                   
         production base is captured for the state                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     •ACES inhibits the development of new projects and                                                                         
     resources that might help stem or even reverse the                                                                         
     decline                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
          -ACES is  not progressive with regard  to costs, so                                                                   
          high  government  take applies  even  to very  high                                                                   
          cost projects                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
          -Existing  system of  capital credits etc.  appears                                                                   
          to  do more  to encourage 'renewal  capex'  than it                                                                   
          does new production spending                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
          -Progressivity can have  a major detrimental impact                                                                   
          on  breakeven  prices  for  high-cost  projects  at                                                                   
          current oil prices                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  observed that  production from  new fields  tell a                                                                   
different  story from  ACES.  New production  economics  were                                                                   
hampered by high costs for new  production. He noted that the                                                                   
graph (contained  in the slide)  depicted the NPV at  a range                                                                   
of prices and illustrated that  as progressivity kicked in at                                                                   
high oil prices  the effect reduced the NPV  to oil producers                                                                   
and   captured  the   value  for   the   government  on   new                                                                   
development.  The impact  increased the  breakeven oil  price                                                                   
for  producers  and  decreased  or  eliminated  the  economic                                                                   
viability on marginal projects.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer spoke  to ways  of  incentivizing new  production,                                                                   
distinct  from  base  production.  Government  take  on  base                                                                   
production and  new developments could simply  be lowered. He                                                                   
cautioned that  the more  changes to the  system as  a whole,                                                                   
both  new and  base  production, the  less  change can  occur                                                                   
specifically for new production.  The government would lose a                                                                   
large amount of  economic "rent" on base  production. Without                                                                   
the distinction  between base production and  new development                                                                   
in the  tax system, incentives  targeted for new  development                                                                   
would be more  limited. Conversely, the benefit  of an across                                                                   
the board approach  was in the ease of administering  the tax                                                                   
system   rather  than   a  more  complex   tax  system   that                                                                   
distinguished  between  new and  base production.  In  Alaska                                                                   
most  new  production  would  come  from  new  investment  in                                                                   
existing  areas, which  made distinguishing  between new  and                                                                   
existing  production  difficult.   The  choice  was a  system                                                                   
designed  for  administrative   simplicity  reducing  overall                                                                   
government  take, by bracketing,  reduced progressivity,  and                                                                   
lower caps on progressivity, or  targeted new development via                                                                   
specific tax measures.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:09:58 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Thomas  asked  whether   ACES  caused  the  lack  of                                                                   
reinvestment by  creating a harvest regime. He  observed that                                                                   
the oil  decline occurred  for the past  18 years.  Mr. Mayer                                                                   
did not feel  that ACES created the problem  and acknowledged                                                                   
that  the  oil   decline  and  investment   climate  occurred                                                                   
sometime before ACES. He explained  that ACES could be viewed                                                                   
as a  fiscal regime that  maximized declining  production. He                                                                   
cautioned  that  in  addition   to  maximizing  returns,  new                                                                   
production especially in high  cost environments needed to be                                                                   
incentivized.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas  suggested that a harvest regime  hampered new                                                                   
oil  development. Mr.  Mayer agreed  and  clarified that  new                                                                   
development, either inside or  far outside of existing fields                                                                   
were   more   expensive,   difficult,   and   technologically                                                                   
challenging  to   develop.  He  exemplified   development  of                                                                   
reservoirs that  required horizontal drilling,  and heavy, or                                                                   
viscous oil.  Technology and  costs can inhibit  development;                                                                   
similarly  high progressivity  and  government  take on  high                                                                   
cost new developments impede progress.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Senator McGuire  observed that  capital credits were  equally                                                                   
valid  for  renewal  or new  production  and  questioned  why                                                                   
developers  chose to use  them only  for renewal. She  shared                                                                   
that she  voted for  ACES because  she believed that  capital                                                                   
credits incentivized  production for development  in a costly                                                                   
environment like  the Artic. She  was troubled that  new jobs                                                                   
were  not  created  and oil  producers  were  only  redeeming                                                                   
capital credits  as renewals.  Mr. Mayer responded  that some                                                                   
of  the  renewal capex  was  non-discretionary.  The  capital                                                                   
expenditure was  crucial infrastructure maintenance  in order                                                                   
to  maintain  production.  He  reiterated  that  the  capital                                                                   
improvement  work that  maintained  a 6  percent decline  was                                                                   
profitable  for existing  production. He  added that  capital                                                                   
credits do improve the economics  of new development, but was                                                                   
not sufficient in an environment  of high government take and                                                                   
high costs.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:19:03 AM                                                                                                                   
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:27:13 AM                                                                                                                   
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:28:06 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer continued his response.  He stressed the importance                                                                   
of understanding  new investment  versus base production.  He                                                                   
explained that new investment  was not just investment in new                                                                   
fields.  New  investment included  capital  investment  using                                                                   
costly  new  technologies  in   existing  infrastructures  by                                                                   
existing  producers.  New investment  required  "significant"                                                                   
new capital  in a cost  challenged environment.  The producer                                                                   
must attract  investment  capital based  on the viability  of                                                                   
the   project  in   a  competitive   international   business                                                                   
environment.   He   declared    that   his   examination   of                                                                   
incentivizing  new production  did not  include a tax  system                                                                   
that would distinguish  between new and  existing production.                                                                   
All  of the  proposals  to  incentivize new  production  were                                                                   
fundamentally  compatible with  the system of  administration                                                                   
used for ACES.  He avoided a system that used  the "mechanics                                                                   
of production tax  itself" as a basis to  distinguish between                                                                   
the  production   streams  because  of  the   difficulty  and                                                                   
complexity  to administer.  He reiterated  that a tax  system                                                                   
that  distinguished  between   different  production  streams                                                                   
created  a  much  greater level  of  complexity.  The  system                                                                   
required multiple  tax returns  and precise accounting  among                                                                   
separate production streams.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:33:02 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer continued  to explain that a system  with different                                                                   
base  rates required  accounting  and sophisticated  auditing                                                                   
for  new volumes  of production  and  allocating its  precise                                                                   
costs.  Complex accounting  was  required to  prevent an  oil                                                                   
company  from taking advantage  of the  more favorable  terms                                                                   
for  new production  by  allocating  more  costs to  the  new                                                                   
production stream.  In contrast,  a tax system  that provided                                                                   
an allowance  through the production  tax was much  easier to                                                                   
administer.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  began his analyses  of the SB 192's  provisions to                                                                   
incentivize  new production.  He related  that the  allowance                                                                   
(an allowance on production that  in any given year was above                                                                   
the  level of  production  from the  previous  year) for  new                                                                   
production  only incentivized  production in  any given  year                                                                   
that was  incremental  to the previous  year's production.  A                                                                   
production threshold  was determined in order  to demonstrate                                                                   
the impacts of the allowance.  He pointed to Slide 26:                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
      "New Oil Allowance: Incremental Production on a                                                                           
          Declining Base."                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
          Central   to  understanding   the  impact   of  the                                                                   
          "allowance  for 'new oil'"  is an understanding  of                                                                   
          the impact of new source  production on a company's                                                                   
          total  production  volumes,  when that  new  source                                                                   
          production is added  to a declining base portfolio.                                                                   
             o The charts at the bottom assumed a 6 percent                                                                     
               decline  rate  for  an  existing  North  Slope                                                                   
               producer  currently   producing  200mb/d,  and                                                                   
               examine hypothetical  new source projects that                                                                   
               peak    at   10mb/d,   50mb/d    and   100mb/d                                                                   
               respectively (on a working interest basis.)                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
             o Given the pace at which such projects                                                                            
               typically reach  peak production, only the 100                                                                   
               mb/d  peak production  new source  development                                                                   
               is actually capable  of adding production that                                                                   
               is incremental to prior years' volumes.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
The slide  included 3 graphs  that illustrated  the allowance                                                                   
at 10mb/d  (thousand barrels  per day),  50mb/d, and  100mb/d                                                                   
peak for new source projects.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  informed the  committee that  the SB192  allowance                                                                   
did not  have an impact on  new production as defined  in the                                                                   
bill at 10mb/d  and 50mb/d. The 100mb/d  projection triggered                                                                   
the allowance in  SB192 and revealed a significant  impact on                                                                   
the decline curve.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:37:34 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Thomas  cited  the  middle  graph  that  represented                                                                   
50mb/d peak new  source projects. He deduced  that every four                                                                   
or five years 50  mb/d of new development was  needed just to                                                                   
flatten the  decline curve  of a  200mb/d field. Three  times                                                                   
the amount  of the  200mb/d field  of incremental  production                                                                   
was  needed for  a  600mb/d field  to  offset  the 6  percent                                                                   
decline for each  4 or 5 year period. He estimated  that over                                                                   
a 12  year  period a  600mb/d field  would need  450 mb/d  of                                                                   
incremental production  to produce the offset.  He remembered                                                                   
from previous  testimony  that a $25  billion investment  was                                                                   
needed to maintain that level  of incremental production. Mr.                                                                   
Mayer  guessed that  the calculations  seemed reasonable.  He                                                                   
referred  to previous  testimony  (Senate Finance  Committee,                                                                   
March  21, 2012,  1:10PM) by  Dale  Pittman (Vice  President,                                                                   
Production, ExxonMobil  Alaska) and  reported that he  made a                                                                   
similar point.  The Oooguruk and  Nikaltchug oil  fields came                                                                   
on line in recent years and flattened  out the decline curve.                                                                   
Equivalent  new developments  would  be needed  each year  to                                                                   
maintain a flat production decline.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer highlighted Slide 27:                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
 "A Hypothetical 100 mb/d (Working Interest) Development."                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     • A  new source  development that  produced 100  mb/d at                                                                   
     peak  for a  working interest  partner would  be a  very                                                                   
     significant  new  development.  By  way  of  comparison,                                                                   
     Kuparak,  the second  largest  field  in North  America,                                                                   
     peaked at ~320 mb/d gross production                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
          - This  represented working interest  production to                                                                   
          ConocoPhillips    (the   operator    and   majority                                                                   
          shareholder) of 170 mbo/d                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
          -  Kuparak took  11 years  (from 1981  to 1992)  to                                                                   
          reach this peak level of production                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     • Since it would take a development  on the scale of 100                                                                   
     mb/d  (working interest)  to  achieve "new  oil" for  an                                                                   
     existing producer  under the  terms of the  amendment, a                                                                   
     development  of  this  size  has  been  modeled  in  the                                                                   
     following analysis                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
          -  A 7  year ramp-up  to peak  production has  been                                                                   
          assumed                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
          - Such  a development would likely  eclipse today's                                                                   
          production  from Kuparak  (122  mb/d gross,  66mb/d                                                                   
          working interest to the majority shareholder)                                                                         
          -  It   is  important  to  note  that   this  is  a                                                                   
          significantly     more    aggressive     new-source                                                                   
          production  profile than  is currently foreseen  in                                                                   
          recent statements  by the major operators  on their                                                                   
          current  development  pipelines, even  in the  most                                                                   
          optimistic circumstances                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Two  additional graphs  illustrated  Conoco Phillips  working                                                                   
interest   in  the   Kuparak  production   profile  and   the                                                                   
hypothetical 100mb/d working interest  development production                                                                   
profile.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:42:26 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer looked at Slide 28:                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
 Assumptions                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
     •The following analysis assumes                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
          -A  6% base  portfolio decline,  in the  case of  a                                                                   
          producer currently producing 200 mb/d                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
          -Costs for the base production portfolio of:                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
               •$12/ flowing bbl. operating expenditure                                                                         
               •$5/   flowing    bbl.   maintenance   capital                                                                   
               expenditure                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
          -Costs for the 100 mb/d (working interest) New                                                                        
          Development project of:                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
               •$13/ flowing bbl. operating expenditure                                                                         
               •$13/bbl.    reserves   development    capital                                                                   
               expenditure                                                                                                      
               •$1/   flowing    bbl.   maintenance   capital                                                                   
               expenditure                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     -These costs  are deliberately  somewhat lower  than the                                                                   
     previously  referenced 10  mb/d  new development,  since                                                                   
     the  hypothetical development  modeled is  significantly                                                                   
     larger, and thus likely to  have somewhat lower costs on                                                                   
     a $/bbl. basis                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  identified Slide 29,  "CSSB 192 Excluding  New Oil                                                                   
Allowance (Existing Producer)."  The Slide depicted three bar                                                                   
graphs and  a chart that  represented the cash  flow analysis                                                                   
of 100mb/d new  development field without the  allowance. The                                                                   
government  take ranged from  74 percent  at $100/bbl.  to 79                                                                   
percent  at  $230/bbl.  He  turned to  Slide  30,  "CSSB  192                                                                   
Including  $10  New  Oil  Allowance  Over  1  Year  (Existing                                                                   
Producer)."  He  noted  that   the  application  of  the  $10                                                                   
allowance  applied in a  single year  on production  over and                                                                   
above last  year's production, had  no effect on  the 100mb/d                                                                   
scenario.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:46:18 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mayer  examined the  allowance with different  variables.                                                                   
He  turned to  Slide  31, "CSSB  192  Including  $20 New  Oil                                                                   
Allowance  Over  7  Years  (Existing  Producer)."  The  Slide                                                                   
depicted through  graphs and a  chart the cash  flow analysis                                                                   
of  a 100  mb/d new  development  with  a $20/bbl.  allowance                                                                   
applied over 7 years. He identified  a slight increase in the                                                                   
NPV  for a  producer and  virtually no  change in  government                                                                   
take. He looked at Slide 32, "CSSB  192 Including $60 New Oil                                                                   
Allowance  Over  7  Years  (Existing  Producer)."  The  slide                                                                   
illustrated  the   cash  flow  analysis  of   a  100mb/d  new                                                                   
development coupled with a $60/bbl.  allowance applied over 7                                                                   
years. He  relayed that  a greater  increase in NPV  occurred                                                                   
but the government  take remained about the  same. The impact                                                                   
of incremental  production was  slight because the  allowance                                                                   
only   applied  to   production   over   the  decline   base.                                                                   
Incremental   production  was   a  relatively  small   amount                                                                   
compared to the base amount.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman  noticed  that  the  presentation  did  not                                                                   
contain  slides with  data for  new  producers, and  wondered                                                                   
why.  Mr.  Mayer   replied  that  the  data   showed  only  a                                                                   
marginally greater  effect and  felt that it was  superfluous                                                                   
to include.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:50:09 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mayer  directed   attention  to  Slide   34,  "CSSB  192                                                                   
Including  Tax  Holiday  Based  on  3  Year  Rolling  Decline                                                                   
(Existing  Producer)."  The slide  used  the existing  format                                                                   
from the  previous slides to illustrate  the impact of  a tax                                                                   
holiday based for an existing  producer. He outlined that the                                                                   
proposal was based on incentivizing  production above a given                                                                   
level.  The target  level was  set by  averaging the  decline                                                                   
rate of  a producer  over 3 years.  Any amount of  production                                                                   
over the average  decline rate counted as new  production and                                                                   
received an  exclusion from production  tax for one  year. He                                                                   
cautioned  that   the  tax   holiday  was  problematic.   The                                                                   
exclusion was  only applicable for  one year and  was minimal                                                                   
when   compared  to   the   producer's   investment  in   new                                                                   
production.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SB  192  was   HEARD  and  HELD  in  committee   for  further                                                                   
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
SB 192 102107 ACES SenResHouseOilGasJointHearing.pdf SFIN 3/22/2012 9:00:00 AM
SB 192
SB 192 032212 PFC Energy Presentation.pdf SFIN 3/22/2012 9:00:00 AM
SB 192